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Notes on prediction market datasets, the exchanges behind them, and how market titles get standardized.

Accuracy of Prediction Markets for Corporate Earnings

Scoring corporate-KPI ‘beat earnings’ markets against their actual resolutions with Brier score: whether calibration is improving over time, and how it varies with company market cap and trading volume.

September 15, 2026

Corporate KPI Prediction Market Correlation with Share Price

Does a corporate-KPI market’s implied forecast track daily moves in the underlying stock – and once the market resolves, was the market’s own price a better predictor of the actual outcome than pre-earnings share-price momentum?

September 15, 2026

Corporate-KPI Prediction Markets

How many corporate-KPI prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket have run, which KPIs and companies they cover, and how that activity has grown over time.

September 10, 2026
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